Some gun violence analysis with Wikipedia data¶

As requested by John Stokes, here are per-capita numbers for gun-related homicides, relating to GDP and total homicides, so the situation in the United States can be put in context relative to other nations.

main data source is UNODC (via Wikipedia here and here).

GDP data from World Bank, again via Wikipedia.

If the numbers on Wikipedia are inaccurate, or their relationship is not sound (e.g. numbers taken from different years, during which significant change occured) then obviously None of this analysis is valid.

To summarize the data, every possible way you look at it the US is lousy at preventing gun violence. Even when compared to significantly more violent places, gun violence in the US is a serious problem, and when compared to similarly wealthy places, the US is an outstanding disaster.

UPDATE: the relationship of the gun data and totals does not seem to be valid. FBI data suggests that the relative contribution of guns to homicides in the US is 47%, but relating these two data sources gives 80%. Internal comparisons should still be fine, but 'fraction' analysis has been stricken.

UPDATE: this is an updated version of the original notebook, run with data provided by Haruo Kamioka.

In [1]:

%matplotlib inline
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns

from IPython.display import display, set_matplotlib_formats
set_matplotlib_formats('retina')

import pandas
pandas.set_option('display.precision', 2)

Some utility functions for display

In [2]:

def plot_percent(df, limit=10):
    df['Gun Percent'][:limit].plot()
    plt.ylim(0,100)
    plt.title("% Gun Homicide")
    plt.show()

In [3]:

def plot_percapita(df, limit=10):
    df = df.ix[:,['Homicides', 'Gun Homicides']][:limit]
    df['Total Homicides'] = df['Homicides'] - df['Gun Homicides']
    del df['Homicides']
    df.plot(kind='bar', stacked=True, sort_columns=True)
    plt.ylabel("per 100k")
    plt.show()

In [4]:

def display_relevant(df, limit=10):
    display(df.ix[:,['Homicides', 'Gun Homicides', 'Sources and notes']][:limit])

Load the data

In [5]:

totals = pandas.read_csv('totals.csv', sep=';', index_col='Country')
guns = pandas.read_csv('guns.csv', sep=';', index_col='Country')
gdp = pandas.read_csv('gdp.csv', sep=';', index_col='Country', thousands=',')
# rename a few columns:
gdp.columns = ['Rank', 'GDP', 'Year']
guns['Gun Homicides'] = guns['Homicides']
del guns['Homicides']
totals['Homicides'] = totals['Rate']

In [6]:

data = totals.join(guns).join(gdp, rsuffix=' (GDP)')
data['Gun Percent'] = 100 * data['Gun Homicides'] / data['Homicides']
del data['Unintentional'], data['Undetermined'], data['Suicides']
data = data.dropna()

In [7]:

data

Out[7]:

	Rate	Count	Region	Subregion	Year	Homicides	Total	calculated	Homicides year	Sucides Year	Unintentional year	Undetermined Year	Sources and notes	Gun Homicides	Rank	GDP	Year (GDP)	Gun Percent
Country
South Africa	31.0	52	Africa	Southern Africa	2012	31.0	21.5	mixed years	2007	1999	1999	1999	Guns in South Africa[59]	17.0	82	12867	2013	54.8
Costa Rica	8.5	110	Americas	Central America	2012	8.5	6.3	mixed years	2006	2002	2002	2000	Guns in Costa Rica[13]	4.6	79	13876	2013	54.1
Mexico	21.5	81	Americas	Central America	2012	21.5	11.2	mixed years	2010	2001	2001	2001	Guns in Mexico[40]	10.0	67	1637	2013	46.5
Nicaragua	11.3	146	Americas	Central America	2012	11.3	7.3	mixed years	2008	2002	2002	2001	Guns in Nicaragua[45]	5.9	131	4643	2013	52.2
Panama	17.2	142	Americas	Central America	2012	17.2	17.6	mixed years	2010	2002	2002	2002	Guns in Panama[47]	16.1	57	19416	2013	93.6
Canada	1.6	131	Americas	Northern America	2012	1.6	2.2	2007-2011	2007-2011	2007-2011 avg	2007-2011	2007-2011	Statistics Canada[10]	0.5	20	42753	2013	31.9
United States	4.7	43	Americas	Northern America	2012	4.7	10.6	2013	2013	2013	2013	2013	Guns in United States[68]	3.5	10	53042	2013	75.5
Brazil	25.2	125	Americas	South America	2012	25.2	19.0	mixed years	2008	2000	2000	2000	Guns in Brazil[8]	18.1	74	15038	2013	71.8
Chile	3.1	132	Americas	South America	2012	3.1	3.7	mixed years	2005	2002	2002	2001	Guns in Chile[11]	2.2	51	21942	2013	71.0
Colombia	30.8	42	Americas	South America	2012	30.8	28.1	mixed years	2010	2009	1999	1999	Guns in Colombia[12]	27.1	83	12424	2013	88.0
Paraguay	9.7	138	Americas	South America	2012	9.7	8.2	mixed years	2009	2000	2000	2000	Guns in Paraguay[48]	7.3	107	8093	2013	75.3
Peru	9.6	72	Americas	South America	2012	9.6	3.7	mixed years	2009	2000	2000	2000	Guns in Peru[49]	2.6	87	11774	2013	27.1
Uruguay	7.9	83	Americas	South America	2012	7.9	14.0	mixed years	2009	2000	2000	2000	Guns in Uruguay[69]	3.4	56	19594	2013	43.4
Venezuela	53.7	51	Americas	South America	2012	53.7	50.9	mixed years	2000	2000	2000	2000	Guns in Venezuela[70]	39.0	62	18198	2013	72.6
Kyrgyzstan	9.1	123	Asia	Central Asia	2011	9.1	1.0	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	Guns in Kyrgyzstan[36]	0.5	141	3213	2013	5.8
Hong Kong	0.4	84	Asia	Eastern Asia	2012	0.4	0.0	mixed years	2004	1999	1996	1996	Guns in Hong Kong[27]	0.0	-	53216	2013	0.0
Japan	0.3	116	Asia	Eastern Asia	2011	0.3	0.1	mixed years	2008	1999	1999	1999	Guns in Japan[34]	0.0	26	36223	2013	0.0
Singapore	0.2	26	Asia	South-Eastern Asia	2012	0.2	0.2	mixed years	2006	1998	1998	1998	Guns in Singapore[56]	0.0	4	78763	2013	10.0
Cyprus	2.0	76	Asia	Western Asia	2012	2.0	1.0	mixed years	2010	2010	2009	2010	Guns in Cyprus[15]	0.2	37	28225	2013	12.0
Georgia	4.3	58	Asia	Western Asia	2010	4.3	1.9	mixed years	2010	2009	2009	2009	Guns in Georgia[22]	0.6	115	716	2013	14.0
Israel	1.8	39	Asia	Western Asia	2012	1.8	1.9	2009	2009	2009	2009	2009	Guns in Israel[31]	0.9	32	32491	2013	52.2
Kuwait	0.4	30	Asia	Western Asia	2012	0.4	0.4	mixed years	1995	1999	2000	2000	Guns in Kuwait[35]	0.4	3	8384	2012	90.0
Bulgaria	1.9	45	Europe	Eastern Europe	2012	1.9	2.4	2011	2011	2011	2011	2011	Guns in Bulgaria[9]	0.2	70	15732	2013	12.1
Czech Republic	1.0	25	Europe	Eastern Europe	2012	1.0	1.8	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	Guns in Czech Republic[16]	0.1	35	29018	2013	12.0
Hungary	1.3	37	Europe	Eastern Europe	2012	1.3	0.9	mixed years	2009	2009	2008	2002	Guns in Hungary[28]	0.1	47	23334	2013	10.0
Poland	1.2	117	Europe	Eastern Europe	2011	1.2	0.2	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	Guns in Poland[51]	0.0	45	2369	2013	1.7
Moldova	6.5	75	Europe	Eastern Europe	2012	6.5	1.0	2011	2011	2011	2011	2011	Guns in Moldova[41]	0.5	130	4671	2013	6.9
Romania	1.7	102	Europe	Eastern Europe	2012	1.7	0.2	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	Guns in Romania[54]	0.0	59	18974	2013	2.4
Slovakia	1.4	156	Europe	Eastern Europe	2012	1.4	1.8	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	Guns in Slovakia[57]	0.2	39	26497	2013	12.9
Denmark	0.8	120	Europe	Northern Europe	2012	0.8	1.3	2011	2011	2011	2008	2004	Guns in Denmark[17]	0.2	18	43782	2013	27.5
Estonia	5.0	139	Europe	Northern Europe	2011	5.0	2.5	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	Guns in Estonia[19]	0.3	40	25823	2013	6.0
Finland	1.6	168	Europe	Northern Europe	2012	1.6	3.6	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	Guns in Finland[20]	0.3	23	3974	2013	16.2
Latvia	4.7	173	Europe	Northern Europe	2012	4.7	1.4	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	Guns in Latvia[37]	0.2	50	22569	2013	3.8
Norway	2.2	28	Europe	Northern Europe	2011	2.2	1.8	mixed years	2010	2010	2010	2008	Guns in Norway[46]	0.0	6	64406	2013	1.8
Sweden	0.7	147	Europe	Northern Europe	2012	0.7	1.5	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	Guns in Sweden[63]	0.2	15	44658	2013	27.1
United Kingdom	1.0	141	Europe	Northern Europe	2011	1.0	0.3	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	Guns in the United Kingdom[67]	0.1	24	38259	2013	5.0
Croatia	1.2	126	Europe	Southern Europe	2012	1.2	3.5	mixed years	2009	2010	2010	2010	Guns in Croatia[14]	1.1	53	21351	2013	91.7
Greece	1.7	57	Europe	Southern Europe	2011	1.7	1.6	mixed years	2009	2009	2009	1998	Guns in Greece[24]	0.6	41	25667	2013	34.7
Italy	0.9	127	Europe	Southern Europe	2012	0.9	1.3	2009	2009	2009	2009	2009	Guns in Italy[32]	0.4	27	35281	2013	40.0
Portugal	1.2	31	Europe	Southern Europe	2012	1.2	1.8	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	Guns in Portugal[52]	0.5	38	27804	2013	40.0
Serbia	1.2	28	Europe	Southern Europe	2012	1.2	3.9	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	Guns in Serbia[55]	0.6	81	1302	2013	51.7
Slovenia	0.7	41	Europe	Southern Europe	2012	0.7	2.5	mixed years	2010	2010	2009	2010	Guns in Slovenia[58]	0.1	36	28859	2013	7.1
Spain	0.8	100	Europe	Southern Europe	2012	0.8	0.6	mixed years	2010	2010	2010	2007	Guns in Spain[61]	0.1	30	33094	2013	18.8
Macedonia	1.4	93	Europe	Southern Europe	2011	1.4	1.9	mixed years	2010	2010	2010	1997	Guns in Macedonia[39]	1.1	90	11612	2013	76.4
Austria	0.9	158	Europe	Western Europe	2012	0.9	3.0	mixed years	2010	2010	2009	2010	Guns in Austria[3]	0.2	13	45079	2013	20.0
Belgium	1.6	56	Europe	Western Europe	2012	1.6	2.4	2006	2006	2006	2006	2006	Guns in Belgium[7]	0.3	22	41575	2013	18.1
France	1.0	145	Europe	Western Europe	2012	1.0	3.0	2009	2009	2009	2009	2009	Guns in France[21]	0.2	25	37532	2013	22.0
Germany	0.8	144	Europe	Western Europe	2011	0.8	1.2	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	Guns in Germany[23]	0.2	16	43884	2013	25.0
Luxembourg	0.8	107	Europe	Western Europe	2011	0.8	2.0	mixed years	2009	2009	2004	2009	Guns in Luxembourg[38]	0.6	2	91048	2013	75.0
Netherlands	0.9	47	Europe	Western Europe	2012	0.9	0.5	2010	2010	2010	2010	2010	Guns in Netherlands[43]	0.2	11	46162	2013	22.2
Australia	1.1	80	Oceania	Australasia	2012	1.1	0.9	2011	2011	2011	2011	2011	Guns in Australia[2]	0.1	19	43202	2013	10.0
New Zealand	0.9	111	Oceania	Australasia	2012	0.9	1.4	mixed years	2009	2007	2006	2006	Guns in New Zealand[44]	0.3	28	34732	2013	28.9

Of all sampled countries (Found data for 68 countries), the US is in the top 15 in Gun Homicides per capita.

Numbers are per 100k.

In [8]:

data = data.sort("Gun Homicides", ascending=False)
display_relevant(data, 15)

	Homicides	Gun Homicides	Sources and notes
Country
Venezuela	53.7	39.0	Guns in Venezuela[70]
Colombia	30.8	27.1	Guns in Colombia[12]
Brazil	25.2	18.1	Guns in Brazil[8]
South Africa	31.0	17.0	Guns in South Africa[59]
Panama	17.2	16.1	Guns in Panama[47]
Mexico	21.5	10.0	Guns in Mexico[40]
Paraguay	9.7	7.3	Guns in Paraguay[48]
Nicaragua	11.3	5.9	Guns in Nicaragua[45]
Costa Rica	8.5	4.6	Guns in Costa Rica[13]
United States	4.7	3.5	Guns in United States[68]
Uruguay	7.9	3.4	Guns in Uruguay[69]
Peru	9.6	2.6	Guns in Peru[49]
Chile	3.1	2.2	Guns in Chile[11]
Croatia	1.2	1.1	Guns in Croatia[14]
Macedonia	1.4	1.1	Guns in Macedonia[39]

Take top 30 Countries by GDP

In [9]:

top = data.sort('GDP')[-30:]

and rank them by Gun Homicides per capita:

In [10]:

top_by_guns = top.sort("Gun Homicides", ascending=False)
display_relevant(top_by_guns, 5)
plot_percapita(top_by_guns, 10)

	Homicides	Gun Homicides	Sources and notes
Country
United States	4.7	3.5	Guns in United States[68]
Chile	3.1	2.2	Guns in Chile[11]
Israel	1.8	0.9	Guns in Israel[31]
Luxembourg	0.8	0.6	Guns in Luxembourg[38]
Greece	1.7	0.6	Guns in Greece[24]

NOTE: these bar graphs should not be interpreted as fractions of a total, as the two data sources do not appear to be comparable. But the red and blue bar graphs should still be internally comparable.

The US is easily #1 of 30 wealthiest countries in Gun Homicides per capita, by a factor of 4:1

Adding USA, Canada, and Mexico to all of Europe, USA is a strong #2 behind Mexico in total gun homicides per-capita

In [11]:

index = (data['Region'] == 'Europe') | \
        (data.index == 'United States') | \
        (data.index == 'Canada') | \
        (data.index == 'Mexico')
selected = data[index]

print("By Total Gun Homicides")
sys.stdout.flush()

by_guns = selected.sort("Gun Homicides", ascending=False)
#by_guns['Gun Homicides'].plot(kind='bar')
plot_percapita(by_guns, limit=25)
display_relevant(selected, limit=None)

By Total Gun Homicides

	Homicides	Gun Homicides	Sources and notes
Country
Mexico	21.5	10.0	Guns in Mexico[40]
United States	4.7	3.5	Guns in United States[68]
Croatia	1.2	1.1	Guns in Croatia[14]
Macedonia	1.4	1.1	Guns in Macedonia[39]
Serbia	1.2	0.6	Guns in Serbia[55]
Luxembourg	0.8	0.6	Guns in Luxembourg[38]
Greece	1.7	0.6	Guns in Greece[24]
Canada	1.6	0.5	Statistics Canada[10]
Portugal	1.2	0.5	Guns in Portugal[52]
Moldova	6.5	0.5	Guns in Moldova[41]
Italy	0.9	0.4	Guns in Italy[32]
Estonia	5.0	0.3	Guns in Estonia[19]
Belgium	1.6	0.3	Guns in Belgium[7]
Finland	1.6	0.3	Guns in Finland[20]
Bulgaria	1.9	0.2	Guns in Bulgaria[9]
Denmark	0.8	0.2	Guns in Denmark[17]
France	1.0	0.2	Guns in France[21]
Netherlands	0.9	0.2	Guns in Netherlands[43]
Germany	0.8	0.2	Guns in Germany[23]
Sweden	0.7	0.2	Guns in Sweden[63]
Slovakia	1.4	0.2	Guns in Slovakia[57]
Latvia	4.7	0.2	Guns in Latvia[37]
Austria	0.9	0.2	Guns in Austria[3]
Spain	0.8	0.1	Guns in Spain[61]
Hungary	1.3	0.1	Guns in Hungary[28]
Czech Republic	1.0	0.1	Guns in Czech Republic[16]
United Kingdom	1.0	0.1	Guns in the United Kingdom[67]
Slovenia	0.7	0.1	Guns in Slovenia[58]
Romania	1.7	0.0	Guns in Romania[54]
Norway	2.2	0.0	Guns in Norway[46]
Poland	1.2	0.0	Guns in Poland[51]

Let's just compare US, Canada, and UK:

In [12]:

select = data.ix[['United States', 'Canada', 'United Kingdom']]
plot_percapita(select)

Normalize to the US numbers (inverse)

In [13]:

select['Homicides'] = select['Homicides']['United States'] / select['Homicides']
select['Gun Homicides'] = select['Gun Homicides']['United States'] / select['Gun Homicides']
display_relevant(select)

	Homicides	Gun Homicides	Sources and notes
Country
United States	1.0	1	Guns in United States[68]
Canada	2.9	7	Statistics Canada[10]
United Kingdom	4.7	71	Guns in the United Kingdom[67]

In [14]:

select['Homicides'] = select['Homicides']['United States'] / select['Homicides']
select['Gun Homicides'] = select['Gun Homicides']['United States'] / select['Gun Homicides']
display_relevant(select)

	Homicides	Gun Homicides	Sources and notes
Country
United States	1.0	1.0	Guns in United States[68]
Canada	0.3	0.1	Statistics Canada[10]
United Kingdom	0.2	0.0	Guns in the United Kingdom[67]

So, you are 2.6 times more likely to be killed in the US than Canada, and 3.5 times more likely than in the UK. That's bad, but not extreme.

However, you are 4.9 times more likely to be killed with a gun in the US than Canada, and almost 100 times more likely than in the UK. That is pretty extreme.

Countries represented:

In [15]:

for country in data.index:
    print(country)

Venezuela
Colombia
Brazil
South Africa
Panama
Mexico
Paraguay
Nicaragua
Costa Rica
United States
Uruguay
Peru
Chile
Croatia
Macedonia
Israel
Serbia
Luxembourg
Georgia
Greece
Kyrgyzstan
Canada
Portugal
Moldova
Italy
Kuwait
Estonia
Belgium
Finland
New Zealand
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Denmark
France
Netherlands
Germany
Sweden
Slovakia
Latvia
Austria
Spain
Hungary
Czech Republic
Australia
United Kingdom
Slovenia
Romania
Norway
Singapore
Poland
Japan
Hong Kong