#!/usr/bin/env python
# coding: utf-8

# # Exploitation vs Exploration

# In[1]:


get_ipython().run_line_magic('matplotlib', 'inline')

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

from bayes_opt import BayesianOptimization


# # Target function

# In[2]:


np.random.seed(42)
xs = np.linspace(-2, 10, 10000)

def f(x):
    return np.exp(-(x - 2) ** 2) + np.exp(-(x - 6) ** 2 / 10) + 1/ (x ** 2 + 1)

plt.plot(xs, f(xs))
plt.show()


# ## Utility function for plotting

# In[3]:


def plot_bo(f, bo):
    x = np.linspace(-2, 10, 10000)
    mean, sigma = bo._gp.predict(x.reshape(-1, 1), return_std=True)
    
    plt.figure(figsize=(16, 9))
    plt.plot(x, f(x))
    plt.plot(x, mean)
    plt.fill_between(x, mean + sigma, mean - sigma, alpha=0.1)
    plt.scatter(bo.space.params.flatten(), bo.space.target, c="red", s=50, zorder=10)
    plt.show()


# # Acquisition Function "Upper Confidence Bound"

# ## Prefer exploitation (kappa=0.1)
# 
# Note that most points are around the peak(s).

# In[4]:


bo = BayesianOptimization(
    f=f,
    pbounds={"x": (-2, 10)},
    verbose=0,
    random_state=987234,
)

bo.maximize(n_iter=10, acq="ucb", kappa=0.1)

plot_bo(f, bo)


# ## Prefer exploration (kappa=10)
# 
# Note that the points are more spread out across the whole range.

# In[5]:


bo = BayesianOptimization(
    f=f,
    pbounds={"x": (-2, 10)},
    verbose=0,
    random_state=987234,
)

bo.maximize(n_iter=10, acq="ucb", kappa=10)

plot_bo(f, bo)


# # Acquisition Function "Expected Improvement"

# ## Prefer exploitation (xi=0.0)
# 
# Note that most points are around the peak(s).

# In[6]:


bo = BayesianOptimization(
    f=f,
    pbounds={"x": (-2, 10)},
    verbose=0,
    random_state=987234,
)

bo.maximize(n_iter=10, acq="ei", xi=1e-4)

plot_bo(f, bo)


# ## Prefer exploration (xi=0.1)
# 
# Note that the points are more spread out across the whole range.

# In[7]:


bo = BayesianOptimization(
    f=f,
    pbounds={"x": (-2, 10)},
    verbose=0,
    random_state=987234,
)

bo.maximize(n_iter=10, acq="ei", xi=1e-1)

plot_bo(f, bo)


# # Acquisition Function "Probability of Improvement"

# ## Prefer exploitation (xi=0.0)
# 
# Note that most points are around the peak(s).

# In[8]:


bo = BayesianOptimization(
    f=f,
    pbounds={"x": (-2, 10)},
    verbose=0,
    random_state=987234,
)

bo.maximize(n_iter=10, acq="poi", xi=1e-4)

plot_bo(f, bo)


# ## Prefer exploration (xi=0.1)
# 
# Note that the points are more spread out across the whole range.

# In[9]:


bo = BayesianOptimization(
    f=f,
    pbounds={"x": (-2, 10)},
    verbose=0,
    random_state=987234,
)

bo.maximize(n_iter=10, acq="poi", xi=1e-1)

plot_bo(f, bo)