In [1]:
import GPy


As of Mon 12th of Oct running on devel branch of GPy 0.8.8

In [2]:
GPy.plotting.change_plotting_library('plotly')


# Gaussian process regression tutorial¶

### Nicolas Durrande 2013¶

#### with edits by James Hensman and Neil D. Lawrence¶

We will see in this tutorial the basics for building a 1 dimensional and a 2 dimensional Gaussian process regression model, also known as a kriging model.

We first import the libraries we will need:

In [3]:
import numpy as np


## 1-dimensional model¶

For this toy example, we assume we have the following inputs and outputs:

In [4]:
X = np.random.uniform(-3.,3.,(20,1))
Y = np.sin(X) + np.random.randn(20,1)*0.05


Note that the observations Y include some noise.

The first step is to define the covariance kernel we want to use for the model. We choose here a kernel based on Gaussian kernel (i.e. rbf or square exponential):

In [5]:
kernel = GPy.kern.RBF(input_dim=1, variance=1., lengthscale=1.)


The parameter input_dim stands for the dimension of the input space. The parameters variance and lengthscale are optional, and default to 1. Many other kernels are implemented, type GPy.kern.<tab> to see a list

In [6]:
#type GPy.kern.<tab> here:
GPy.kern.BasisFuncKernel?


The inputs required for building the model are the observations and the kernel:

In [7]:
m = GPy.models.GPRegression(X,Y,kernel)


By default, some observation noise is added to the model. The functions display and plot give an insight of the model we have just built:

In [8]:
from IPython.display import display
display(m)


Model: GP regression
Objective: 22.9717924697
Number of Parameters: 3
Number of Optimization Parameters: 3

GP_regression. valueconstraintspriors
rbf.variance 1.0 +ve
rbf.lengthscale 1.0 +ve
Gaussian_noise.variance 1.0 +ve
In [9]:
fig = m.plot()
GPy.plotting.show(fig, filename='basic_gp_regression_notebook')

This is the format of your plot grid:
[ (1,1) x1,y1 ]


Out[9]:

The above cell shows our GP regression model before optimization of the parameters. The shaded region corresponds to ~95% confidence intervals (ie +/- 2 standard deviation).

The default values of the kernel parameters may not be optimal for the current data (for example, the confidence intervals seems too wide on the previous figure). A common approach is to find the values of the parameters that maximize the likelihood of the data. It as easy as calling m.optimize in GPy:

In [10]:
m.optimize(messages=True)


If we want to perform some restarts to try to improve the result of the optimization, we can use the optimize_restarts function. This selects random (drawn from $N(0,1)$) initializations for the parameter values, optimizes each, and sets the model to the best solution found.

In [11]:
m.optimize_restarts(num_restarts = 10)

Optimization restart 1/10, f = -15.1436482683
Optimization restart 2/10, f = -15.1436482683
Optimization restart 3/10, f = -15.1436482682
Optimization restart 4/10, f = -15.1436482682
Optimization restart 5/10, f = -15.1436482682
Optimization restart 6/10, f = -15.1436482682
Optimization restart 7/10, f = -15.1436482683
Optimization restart 8/10, f = -15.1436482682
Optimization restart 9/10, f = -15.1436482683
Optimization restart 10/10, f = -15.1436482683

Out[11]:
[<paramz.optimization.optimization.opt_lbfgsb at 0x7fd96a244210>,
<paramz.optimization.optimization.opt_lbfgsb at 0x7fd96a388810>,
<paramz.optimization.optimization.opt_lbfgsb at 0x7fd96a3b3250>,
<paramz.optimization.optimization.opt_lbfgsb at 0x7fd96a244350>,
<paramz.optimization.optimization.opt_lbfgsb at 0x7fd96a388b90>,
<paramz.optimization.optimization.opt_lbfgsb at 0x7fd96a388c10>,
<paramz.optimization.optimization.opt_lbfgsb at 0x7fd96a388850>,
<paramz.optimization.optimization.opt_lbfgsb at 0x7fd96a388c50>,
<paramz.optimization.optimization.opt_lbfgsb at 0x7fd96a388c90>,
<paramz.optimization.optimization.opt_lbfgsb at 0x7fd96a202e90>,
<paramz.optimization.optimization.opt_lbfgsb at 0x7fd96a388ad0>]

In this simple example, the objective function (usually!) has only one local minima, and each of the found solutions are the same.

Once again, we can use print(m) and m.plot() to look at the resulting model resulting model. This time, the paraemters values have been optimized agains the log likelihood (aka the log marginal likelihood): the fit shoul dbe much better.

In [12]:
display(m)
fig = m.plot()
GPy.plotting.show(fig, filename='basic_gp_regression_notebook_optimized')


Model: GP regression
Objective: -15.1436482683
Number of Parameters: 3
Number of Optimization Parameters: 3

GP_regression. valueconstraintspriors
rbf.variance 1.35354271667 +ve
rbf.lengthscale 1.94630136743 +ve
Gaussian_noise.variance0.00248112830273 +ve
This is the format of your plot grid:
[ (1,1) x1,y1 ]


Out[12]:

### New plotting of GPy 0.9 and later¶

The new plotting allows you to plot the density of a GP object more fine grained by plotting more percentiles of the distribution color coded by their opacity

In [13]:
display(m)
fig = m.plot(plot_density=True)
GPy.plotting.show(fig, filename='basic_gp_regression_density_notebook_optimized')


Model: GP regression
Objective: -15.1436482683
Number of Parameters: 3
Number of Optimization Parameters: 3

GP_regression. valueconstraintspriors
rbf.variance 1.35354271667 +ve
rbf.lengthscale 1.94630136743 +ve
Gaussian_noise.variance0.00248112830273 +ve
This is the format of your plot grid:
[ (1,1) x1,y1 ]


Out[13]:

## 2-dimensional example¶

Here is a 2 dimensional example:

In [14]:
# sample inputs and outputs
X = np.random.uniform(-3.,3.,(50,2))
Y = np.sin(X[:,0:1]) * np.sin(X[:,1:2])+np.random.randn(50,1)*0.05

# define kernel
ker = GPy.kern.Matern52(2,ARD=True) + GPy.kern.White(2)

# create simple GP model
m = GPy.models.GPRegression(X,Y,ker)

# optimize and plot
m.optimize(messages=True,max_f_eval = 1000)
fig = m.plot()
display(GPy.plotting.show(fig, filename='basic_gp_regression_notebook_2d'))
display(m)

This is the format of your plot grid:
[ (1,1) x1,y1 ]



Model: GP regression
Objective: -24.7900663215
Number of Parameters: 5
Number of Optimization Parameters: 5

GP_regression. valueconstraintspriors
sum.Mat52.variance 0.361421808902 +ve
sum.Mat52.lengthscale (2,) +ve
sum.white.variance 0.000644606566433 +ve
Gaussian_noise.variance0.000644606566433 +ve

The flag ARD=True in the definition of the Matern kernel specifies that we want one lengthscale parameter per dimension (ie the GP is not isotropic). Note that for 2-d plotting, only the mean is shown.

## Plotting slices¶

To see the uncertaintly associated with the above predictions, we can plot slices through the surface. this is done by passing the optional fixed_inputs argument to the plot function. fixed_inputs is a list of tuples containing which of the inputs to fix, and to which value.

To get horixontal slices of the above GP, we'll fix second (index 1) input to -1, 0, and 1.5:

In [15]:
slices = [-1, 0, 1.5]
figure = GPy.plotting.plotting_library().figure(3, 1,
shared_xaxes=True,
subplot_titles=('slice at -1',
'slice at 0',
'slice at 1.5',
)
)
for i, y in zip(range(3), slices):
canvas = m.plot(figure=figure, fixed_inputs=[(1,y)], row=(i+1), plot_data=False)
GPy.plotting.show(canvas, filename='basic_gp_regression_notebook_slicing')

This is the format of your plot grid:
[ (1,1) x1,y1 ]
[ (2,1) x1,y2 ]
[ (3,1) x1,y3 ]


Out[15]:

A few things to note:

• we've also passed the optional ax argument, to mnake the GP plot on a particular subplot
• the data look strange here: we're seeing slices of the GP, but all the data are displayed, even though they might not be close to the current slice.

To get vertical slices, we simply fixed the other input. We'll turn the display of data off also:

In [16]:
slices = [-1, 0, 1.5]
figure = GPy.plotting.plotting_library().figure(3, 1,
shared_xaxes=True,
subplot_titles=('slice at -1',
'slice at 0',
'slice at 1.5',
)
)
for i, y in zip(range(3), slices):
canvas = m.plot(figure=figure, fixed_inputs=[(0,y)], row=(i+1), plot_data=False)
GPy.plotting.show(canvas, filename='basic_gp_regression_notebook_slicing_vertical')

This is the format of your plot grid:
[ (1,1) x1,y1 ]
[ (2,1) x1,y2 ]
[ (3,1) x1,y3 ]


Out[16]:

You can find a host of other plotting options in the m.plot docstring. Type m.plot?<enter> to see.